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All-in equities for the exact hands shown, rounded to whole percent.
Most players think
Aces beat the worst hand in poker ~95% of the time.
Seven-deuce offsuit is the worst starting hand in Hold'em and it still wins roughly one time in eight. Two cards and five board cards leave a lot of room for a bad hand to get there.
Most players think
Aces over kings is close to a lock.
Kings win almost one time in five. The king that saves them arrives on about 4% of flops alone, and there are two more streets after that.
Most players think
Ace-King suited must be ahead of the worst pocket pair.
The smallest pair in the deck is exactly even against the best unpaired hand. "Race" is not a figure of speech here — suitedness buys Ace-King just enough to pull level, and no more.
Most players think
Big Slick is a premium hand, so it is ahead of queens.
Ace-King is a drawing hand preflop — it has to improve to win. Against a pair that is already made, it is behind every time the board bricks.
Most players think
Small suited connectors are nearly dead against aces.
Suited connectors make straights and flushes that aces cannot beat. Against seven-deuce the aces are 87%; against six-five suited they lose ten points of equity.
Most players think
Jacks against Ace-King is a coinflip.
The pair-versus-overcards race is not even — the made pair keeps its edge. Jacks are a clear favourite here, which is why folding them preflop is usually a mistake.
Most players think
An overpair on a low flop is comfortably ahead.
Jack-Ten suited flops an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw at once — fifteen cards win it the pot. Aces are the best hand right now and still the worse hand to have.
Most players think
A flush draw is behind an overpair.
Nine flush cards plus six cards that pair the ace or king make fifteen outs with two streets to come. The hand that has nothing right now is the one that wins more often.
Most players think
A set is in trouble against the nut flush draw.
Flopping a set is strong enough to shrug off the nut flush draw, and the board can still pair to make a full house. This is the spot to get the money in, not to slow down.
Most players think
An open-ender is close to a coinflip against an overpair.
Eight clean outs twice is roughly a third of the time, not half. The rule of four overstates it — you only get the full four-per-out if you are guaranteed to see both cards.
Most players think
Overcards plus a gutshot gives you plenty of equity.
Four cards make the straight and six more pair the ace or king. It feels like a lot of ways to win, and it is still barely a quarter of the pot.
Most players think
Top pair is in bad shape against a flush draw.
A flush draw with one overcard is a real threat but not a favourite. Top pair wins here roughly two times in three — folding it to a single bet gives away money.
Yes. Against a hand with a straight draw and a flush draw at the same time — jack-ten suited on a nine-eight-two board with two of that suit — aces are roughly 44% to win. The draw has about fifteen cards that beat it, which is more equity than the made hand.
About 13% of the time, all-in before the flop. Aces win roughly 87%, not the 95% most players assume. The worst starting hand in Texas Hold'em still gets there once in every eight attempts.
Almost exactly. Ace-king suited is about 50% against pocket deuces all-in preflop. The smallest pair in the deck is dead even with the strongest unpaired hand, which is why these spots are called races.
It can be. A nut flush draw with two overcards has around fifteen outs and wins roughly 54% of the time against an overpair with two cards to come. The hand that has nothing yet is the favourite.
These are all-in equities for two specific hands, run through the same Monte Carlo engine as our odds calculator, and rounded to whole percent. Charts that quote a hand against a random opponent range will give different numbers because the opponent is not a fixed holding.
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Open the odds calculatorEquities are Monte Carlo approximations accurate to about one percent, produced by the same engine as our odds calculator.